If the back of the existing tray is the rearmost point (no towball sticking out beyond that?) then you have about 382mm to play with.
I would guess that if only slightly over you might avoid detection on a 4x4 by coppers & VicRoads easier than if it were a motorhome or converted bus. I know of folks who have been over length on their RV's for years & never been checked, but I also know of plenty who have, particularly when travelling in NSW where they seem to have blitzes on them every so often. My view would be that a basic extended tray would be less likely to attract attention than one with a camper on it. Whether anyone would get a tape measure out in the event of an accident who knows? Probably depends upon whether the extension 'looks' obvious, or stock.
Legalities aside the further behind the axle any weight is the greater the 'pendulum/lever' effect & thus the greater the impact on handling, braking & stress on the chassis.
This topic came up in conversation last weeken whilst I was camped with a bunch of folks in converted buses & campervans. One person suggested that it is possible to obtain an OD (over dimension) permit which lasts indefinitely. I'm a bit suss about whether this is true or not, but might be worth investigating. (EDIT: Have just posted a query about this on a motorhome forum where I'm a member & wil feed back if I get any useful info)
On a related topic, when folks extend their chassis behind the rear axle do they get the modifications 'engineered'? Fairly recently, when getting a local fabrication company make me a gas bottle carrier to attach to a chassis rail, they made it quite clear that the method of attachment had to be achieved without welding or drilling the chassis, as they were not allowed to do so.
Cuppa